Amid a summer of wild political turns, the fight for Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes is seemingly back to where it was six weeks ago — a jump ball, according to a new statewide poll by the Marquette Law School.
But under the surface, there are some striking signs of change.
Chief among them: Enthusiasm of Democratic voters has soared in the wake of President Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris’ emergence as the party’s new candidate against Republican former President Donald Trump.
Democrats were chronically downcast about the 2024 election while Biden was the party’s presumed nominee. That resulted in a large and persistent “enthusiasm gap” between the parties that raised obvious questions about Democratic turnout in November.
In a series of surveys stretching back to last fall, only about 40% of Democrats in Wisconsin described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting for president in this election, compared to almost 60% of Republicans.
There was no precedent in Marquette’s many years of polling for an enthusiasm gap that big between the parties. We saw nothing like it in 2014, in 2018, in 2020 or in 2022. (The question wasn’t asked in 2016).
And there was no precedent for voters in either party to be this tepid about an election. Democratic enthusiasm was so low that at one point it lagged behind enthusiasm amongindependentvoters, which rarely happens because independents are much less engaged in politics than voters who identify with one of the two major political parties.
As Marquette pollster Charles Franklin put it Wednesday, that lingering lack of enthusiasm among Democrats turned to “near depression” after Biden’s shaky performance in the June presidential debate.
More:Marquette poll takeaways: Kamela Harris campaign rejuvenates Wisconsin Democrats
But in the new poll of 877 registered voters, taken July 24 to Aug. 1, Democratic enthusiasm has soared by more than 20 points. And the enthusiasm gap has almost entirely disappeared: 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they’re very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 64% of Republicans and Republican “leaners.”
Before Biden withdrew, Democrats had huge qualms about their candidate’s age: about 7 in 10 agreed with the statement that he is “too old.”
In the new poll, 91% of Democrats in Wisconsin agreed with Biden’s decision to withdraw and 95% said they’d be satisfied with Harris as the nominee.
What does this mean for the outcome of the election?
It certainly doesn’t tell us who is going to win.
The poll shows a 50/50 race, which is roughly where the race was in June, April, and last fall, when earlier Marquette polls in Wisconsin were conducted.
A lot has happened since the previous poll: Biden’s disastrous debate; the attempted assassination of Trump; Trump’s selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate; the GOP convention in Milwaukee; a mushrooming debate among Democrats over whether Biden should stay in the race; and, finally, Biden’s departure from the race.
More:Kamala Harris and Tim Walz sweep into Wisconsin seeking to build momentum
It’s quite possible these events produced shifts in the race for Wisconsin as they were happening. Some state polls suggested as much. National polls suggest Trump did make gains in the wake of the June debate and the attempt on his life, but then Democrats made gains after Biden’s departure from the race and Harris became the de facto nominee.
In the latest Wisconsin survey, this leaves us with a race that appears to be just as competitive as it was before all these events occurred.
At the same time, it’s not quite the “same” race, the polling suggests.
The disappearance of that large and persistent enthusiasm gap could leave the parties on a more equal footing when it comes to turnout this fall. In earlier polls, Trump led Biden in Wisconsin by more than 20 points among the most enthusiastic voters. In the new poll, that lead is down to 5 points.
If this pattern holds, then mobilizing their own voters might no longer be the huge challenge that it was for Democrats in a Biden-Trump race. Instead, the central task for Harris may be persuasion — winning over the relatively small segment of swing voters out there that are still in play.
But this isn’t the only way in which this poll looks different from previous Wisconsin polls.
The decline in 'double-haters'
The number of “double-haters” in the electorate has shrunk. These are the voters who dislike both major candidates, forming a critical and unpredictable segment of the electorate. That group made up 17% of voters in June when it was a Trump-Biden matchup. In the new poll, it comprises 11% of voters in a Trump-Harris matchup.
Why are there fewer double-haters?
One reason is that Trump’s negatives are a little lower and his positives a little higher. In June, 41% of voters viewed him favorably and 57% viewed him unfavorably. In the new poll, 44% view him favorably and 54% unfavorably, suggesting a small bump related to the attempt on his life, or his response to it, or the GOP convention itself.
The other reason is that Harris has lower negatives in this poll than Biden had in previous surveys. In June, 57% of voters viewed Biden unfavorably. In the new poll, 51% view Harris negatively.
That number could increase, of course, in the remaining weeks of the campaign, especially as Republicans step up their criticism of her. Since she is a first-time nominee, and a very late-breaking one, views of her are not as fixed as they are of Trump or Biden and will be shaped by her effectiveness as a candidate and the effectiveness of the GOP campaign against her.
But at a minimum, the new survey suggests that Harris probably has a higher political ceiling than Biden did at the time he dropped out. When Wisconsin voters were asked how they would have voted had Biden remained in the race, they favored Trump by 5 points, compared to the roughly 50/50 split in the Trump-Harris matchup.
The poll also suggests that Harris starts out free of some of the same baggage that burdened Biden.
For example, 12% say the 59-year-old Harris is “too old,” compared to 76% for the 81-year-old Biden (and 59% for the 78-year-old Trump); 37% say Harris has behaved corruptly, compared to 46% for Biden.
Harris also scores a little better than Biden did for sharing “your values” and having the “right temperament to be president.”
Trump still enjoys an edge over Harris on the issues of the economy and immigration, as he did with respect to Biden, though the edge is smaller.
Harris enjoys an edge over Trump on health care and abortion, as Biden did.
The fact that the overall shape of the “horse race” is so similar to where it was before all the drama and change of this summer is a testament to the deep-seated divisions and fundamental partisan balance in Wisconsin.
But now we suddenly have a new Democratic candidate, part of the same administration, but with a different background and different strengths and weaknesses, free of the overriding political liability that doomed Biden’s candidacy (the widespread view he was too old for the job), and free of the unique morale problem that posed for Democratic voters.
It’s the same 50/50 battleground, but a different battle.
